Case and Shiller disagree on housing market outlook
In what shouldn't be much of a surprise, Bloomberg reports that, "Residential real estate prices fell more than forecast in November, showing distressed properties are hampering improvement in the US housing market. The S&P Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities declined 3.7 percent from November 2010 after decreasing 3.4 percent in the year ended in October."
Basically, the Case-Shiller index is not seasonally adjusted and prices have historically been lower from September through February than they are during the peak home buying and selling season of March through August.
But here is where it gets a little more interesting. Karl Case and Robert Shiller disagree on the housing market outlook. My personal opinion is that Charleston home prices should continue to be stable but I don't see any significant appreciation for at least another year.
In an interview with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt in Bloomberg, Case says “The housing market may be poised to begin its turnaround in the months to come, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s Karl Case. If you look at the fundamentals, such as number of existing sales and number of new sales, and look if they are going in the right direction, they are.”
While in an interview with Henry Blodgett in Business Insider, Shiller says “When people phrase is that way (that housing prices are bottoming), they say 'we've reached the bottom.' That suggests that we have the expectation of a major turning point right now. But I don't see that. I don't see any reason to think that prices are going to start heading up dramatically now. We do have some good news. Permits are up…”