Charleston real estate year end outlook
Brr. It's actually cool, granted I'm a bit of a weather wimp but yesterday I wore a long sleeved shirt for probably the first time since March so it's a good time to take a look at the outlook for the Charleston real estate market for the balance of the year.
Let's not forget that last September was the beginning of the financial crisis but most real estate transactions that closed in both September and October were contracts that were written before the stock market tanked and the government stepped in with bailouts of the financial industry so while a few deals probably fell through, most predated the crisis atmosphere.
Here are the statistics for the last 4 months of 2008.
Sep 732 sales Median $186,995
Oct 641 sales Median $189,900
Nov 507 sales Median $185,000
Dec 560 sales Median $196,116
Thus far 669 sales have been reported in the Charleston MLS for the month of September 09 but you should remember that sales are generally reported a little late and there will probably be over 700 sales for the month by the time the figures are finalized. The median sales price at this point is $173,500.
There are 1330 homes under contract that are listed as contingent and 611 homes under contract that are listed as pending. In almost all cases, homes that are pending will close, all contingencies have been removed and all that is left is final underwriting by the lenders. As to homes that are contingent, some will close, others won't depending on how home inspections, financing, appraisals, third party lender approvals for short sales and other contingencies turn out.
With the first time homebuyer tax credit due to expire on November 30, sales should beat last year for the first time in a long time (we were really close this past July). Prices will probably be lower reflecting more activity in entry level homes at lower price points.
But like the cash for clunkers program, a lot of buying has just been moved forward by the first time homebuyer tax credit and almost everyone who wanted the $8k tax credit has probably made the decision to buy at this point. (And I should point out that you shouldn't be buying a home just to get the tax credit).
So look for a pretty good October, a very good November and enjoy the holiday season because if the tax credit is not extended, it should be slow in December. But having said that, if you didn't qualify for the tax credit and are thinking of buying a home, you should be able to get an even better deal in December from those desperate sellers whose home didn't go under contract while the tax credit was available.