Moving, mobility and migration
The US Census Bureau announced that the national mover rate declined from 13.2 percent in 2007 to 11.9 percent in 2008 - the lowest rate since the bureau began tracking this data in 1948. Only 35.2 million people one year and older changed residences within the US in the past year, the smallest number of residents to move since 1962.
Highlights:
The South and West were likeliest to move.
65% moved within the same county, 18% to a different county in the same state, 13% to a different state and 3% to the US from abroad.
Cities experienced a net loss of 2 million movers while suburbs had a net gain of 2.2 million movers.
Renters were 5 times more likely to move than homeowners, 27.7% to 5.4%.
The NY Times cited the obvious, that the nationwide slump in housing and jobs created a lack of mobility.
But if that were the case, why does a quick glance at the chart to the left show that the moving rate has been dropping consistently since a spike in the 1970's.
And it is counter intuitive with the large number of people losing their homes to foreclosure that more former homeowners or the tenants living in homes that were eventually foreclosed and were forced to move.
I don't mean to beat up on the Times and kick them when they are down but the article made no sense to me when looking at the longer term trend.
As home ownership rates have increased, owners are typically less likely to move than renters. The census bureau indicated a 5 to 1 ratio favoring renters moving rather than homeowners. And historically, homeowners live in their homes an average of 7 years.
What does all this mean to the Charleston real estate market?
The South is still the destination of choice followed by the West as people leave the Northeast and Midwest for better weather and more job creation. Charleston attracts many people who are either retiring, buying second homes or seeking to live in areas like ours where job creation has been strong.
While I'm sure that job creation has slowed in the Charleston area over the past 6 months, it's more likely to still be better than in many other areas of the country. But people need to be able to sell their homes in other parts of the country in order to relocate to Charleston. Since real estate sales activity has slowed, fewer people have been able to move here.