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[Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

Charleston real estate, options for first time home buyersRon Lieber of the NY Times wrote an interesting article for first time home buyers wondering whether or not to buy in today's difficult real estate market.

"Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.

Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.

Unfortunately, we do not know when this golden age will begin, because we will be able to identify a bottom to the housing market only with the benefit of hindsight. But as it does with the stock market, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.

That moment is certainly getting closer. Housing prices have fallen drastically from their peak levels in many areas of the country. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are already close to 5.5 percent, and this week there were suggestions that the federal government might try to drive them down to 4.5 percent, a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades."

Let me highlight a few phrases for your consideration:

  • we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers
  • kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime
  • the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic
  • a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades

Take a look at this phrase just one more time, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.

If you are currently on the sidelines and don't know whether to buy or to wait, consider both the pros and cons offered in this article.   

Published Monday, December 08, 2008 7:50 AM by Howard Arnoff

Comments

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

Howard, I tried to make sense out of the report attached to the NY times story.  I think the report has an error in the NoChs/Chs MSA data regarding 2012 equity.  It looks like they transposed rental rates with the projected equity.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008 8:30 AM by Charlie

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

Charlie, I never clicked through to the analytics you mentioned since it didn't really have anything to do with my story.

But if it's printed, it's gotta be right, doesn't it ;)

Tuesday, December 09, 2008 8:54 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

"But if it's printed, it's gotta be right, doesn't it ;) "

I hope not.  In the previous (May) report,  CHS equity was 24-35k. In the current(Oct), the equity is less that 2k.  Meaning CHS area realestate values will plunge almost 20%

Tuesday, December 09, 2008 11:33 AM by Charlie

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

Charlie, you took my statement a little wrong, as I said, I didn't bother to look at the analytics.

What I meant was a little bit of a play on how people read something either in the paper or online and take it for face value truth.

I seriously doubt prices will plunge by 20% in the Charleston area.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008 1:54 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

I got it.  Those icons are a sure giveaway.  I emailed The center for whatever with the comment.  I hope they will respond with the correct data.  Columbia and Greenville backup just a little, so I would expect a "breakeven" or better situation here.  Good News!

Tuesday, December 09, 2008 7:05 PM by Charlie

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

The center for economic policy and research replied to my email saying that they had made corrections.  

They classify the Chs MSA as a "non-bubble" region but decreased their equity forecast for a house bought in 2008 by about $17000. That is based on rental cost ratios that only a trained real estate professional could sift through

Thursday, December 11, 2008 7:33 AM by Charlie

# re: [Maybe] It's time to buy that first house

Charlie, thanks for doing the work. And while I'm a trained real estate professional, I wouldn't dare sift through rental cost ratios. It's another stupid governmental statistic kind of like core inflation. After all, why count food and energy prices when they are too volatile and nobody really uses them everyday. ;)

The price of homes is determined by supply and demand. Right now, demand is low and supply is way too high.

Thursday, December 11, 2008 8:27 AM by Howard Arnoff
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