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Mortgage insurers and declining housing markets

The good news for the Charleston real estate market is that Charleston is not considered a declining market according to the mortgage insurers. A lot of the country is as mortgage insurers attempt to reduce risk.

A big change is that borrowers can no longer avoid mortgage insurance by taking out the piggyback loan which has virtually disappeared. The good news is that mortgage insurance is finally tax deductible, likely a big reason for trying to get around it in past years. But make no mistake, today's mortgage market requires a down payment, mortgage insurance when the down payment is less than 20%, good credit and documentation.

While Charleston is not currently rated a declining market, we still face headwinds from very high inventory levels and fewer sales. As I've mentioned on many occasions, high supply and less demand pressures prices. But as I notice the areas on the chart, of course there are the usual suspects, California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada along with the economically troubled Midwest. But a lot of large metropolitan areas seem to be designated including the very populated Northeast corridor and I can't help but wonder if the mortgage insurers are painting with too broad a brush by not digging down and analyzing how home prices are doing in specific areas such as zip codes. Here in Charleston as an example, home prices are performing somewhat differently in Mount Pleasant and Daniel Island than Summerville and Goose Creek.  

Here is a very helpful map from the WSJOnline showing declining housing markets.

Published Wednesday, July 16, 2008 6:34 AM by Howard Arnoff

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# re: Mortgage insurers and declining housing markets

Charleston should be a declining market.  Just got my q2 edition of the charleston market report and almost every area in charleston shows a decline from last year!

Sunday, July 27, 2008 8:02 PM by Janet

# re: Mortgage insurers and declining housing markets

Janet, I haven't looked through Brad's statistics yet and I wouldn't be surprised to see price declines throughout the Charleston area from a year ago but that doesn't mean the mortgage insurers would consider price declines severe enough to be rated a declining market or the entire map of the US above would be bright red.

Monday, July 28, 2008 4:43 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Mortgage insurers and declining housing markets

That is why the mortgage insurers stocks are penny stocks now or out of business.  They do not even know how to identify a declining market.  What a bunch of idiots!

How do you define a declining market???

Wednesday, July 30, 2008 2:55 PM by Janet

# re: Mortgage insurers and declining housing markets

Janet, they may be a bunch of "idiots" but take a look at this chart of Charleston home prices for the past year and tell me whether Charleston looks like a declining market to you.

http://tinyurl.com/69p7te

I think it's important to look beyond the headlines.

UPDATE: I will be posting the Charleston home price statistics tomorrow and prices on single family homes under $600k did decline on a year over year basis for the most recent 12 month period compared to the previous 12 month period by 3.22% and 3.32% on an average and median basis respectively.

Believe it or not, all other housing classifications that I track had price increases. We should all hope that the Charleston market continues to be as strong as it is despite all the obvious problems with housing, credit and the economy.

Thursday, July 31, 2008 3:36 PM by Howard Arnoff

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