Charleston South Carolina real estate market report, November 2007
The Charleston South Carolina real estate market trends continue unabated with declining sales, high inventory that has remained very steady for the last 6 months and stubbornly stable prices. Once again, we'll present the statistics first and comment after.
Unit Sales and Inventory
Single Family Homes
| Month | Sales 06 | Sales 07 | Change | Inv (mo) 06 | Inv (mo) 07 | Change |
| | | | | | | |
| Jan | 783 | 702 | -10.34% | 3719 (4.75) | 5719 (8.14) | 53.78% |
| Feb | 858 | 770 | -10.26% | 4023 (4.69) | 5861 (7.61) | 45.69% |
| Mar | 1177 | 994 | -15.55% | 4330 (3.68) | 6087 (6.12) | 40.58% |
| Apr | 964 | 771 | -20.02% | 4692 (4.87) | 6329 (8.21) | 34.89% |
| May | 1189 | 786 | -33.89% | 4900 (4.12) | 6711 (8.54) | 36.96% |
| June | 1322 | 879 | -33.51% | 5235 (3.96) | 6932 (7.89) | 32.42% |
| July | 1024 | 792 | -22.66% | 5618 (5.49) | 7022 (8.87) | 24.99% |
| Aug | 1041 | 811 | -22.09% | 5849 (5.62) | 7107 (8.76) | 21.51% |
| Sep | 1101 | 662 | -39.87% | 5963 (5.42) | 7159 (10.81) | 20.06% |
| Oct | 834 | 561 | -32.73% | 6075 (7.28) | 7102 (12.66) | 16.91% |
| Nov | 889 | 574 | -35.43% | 5999 (6.75) | 7044 (12.27) | 17.42% |
| Dec | 862 | | | 5755 (6.68) | | |
Condos and Townhomes
| Month | Sales 06 | Sales 07 | Change | Inv (mo) 06 | Inv (mo) 07 | Change |
| | | | | | | |
| Jan | 331 | 155 | -53.17% | 1189 (3.60) | 2403 (15.50) | 102.10% |
| Feb | 276 | 163 | -40.94% | 1665 (6.03) | 2521 (15.47) | 51.41% |
| Mar | 374 | 239 | -36.10% | 1763 (4.71) | 2618 (10.95) | 48.50% |
| Apr | 434 | 235 | -45.85% | 1730 (3.99) | 2740 (11.66) | 58.38% |
| May | 405 | 243 | -40.00% | 1971 (4.87) | 2805 (11.54) | 42.31% |
| June | 329 | 219 | -33.43% | 2096 (6.37) | 2793 (12.75) | 33.26% |
| July | 345 | 251 | -27.25% | 2289 (6.63) | 2811 (11.20) | 22.80% |
| Aug | 312 | 190 | -39.10% | 2318 (7.43) | 2873 (15.12) | 23.94% |
| Sep | 284 | 193 | -32.04% | 2419 (8.52) | 2941 (15.24) | 21.58% |
| Oct | 268 | 196 | -26.87% | 2624 (9.79) | 2921 (14.90) | 11.32% |
| Nov | 207 | 169 | -18.36% | 2579 (12.4) | 2923 (17.30) | 13.34% |
| Dec | 244 | | | 2467 (10.1) | | |
The "Current Inventory" (inv) column reflects the number of active listings on the market on the 16th day of each Month. The "Months of Inventory" (mo) column is equal to the "Current Inventory" divided by the "Monthly Sales". This reflects how many months it would take to sell out of inventory at the current month's rate of sale. It can also be referred to as the absorption rate.
Average and median prices
Single Family Homes
| Month | Average 06 | Average 07 | Change | Median 06 | Median 07 | Change |
| | | | | | | |
| Jan | $338,307 | $329,364 | -2.60% | $206,531 | $221,450 | 7.20% |
| Feb | $290,867 | $290,621 | unch | $208,965 | $218,269 | 4.50% |
| Mar | $319,579 | $310,000 | -3.00% | $210,551 | $219,916 | 4.40% |
| Apr | $319,989 | $324,465 | 1.40% | $215,000 | $229,000 | 6.50% |
| May | $343,653 | $350,283 | 1.90% | $216,728 | $229,250 | 5.70% |
| June | $306,038 | $357,550 | 16.83% | $213,116 | $225,000 | 5.58% |
| July | $325,242 | $328,594 | 0.10% | $226,580 | $222,261 | -1.91% |
| Aug | $319,838 | $349,536 | 9.29% | $221,937 | $221,295 | -0.29% |
| Sep | $286,945 | $289,441 | 0.86% | $200,935 | $198,186 | -1.37% |
| Oct | $332,620 | $299,628 | -9.91% | $215,000 | $205,000 | -4.65% |
| Nov | $301,428 | $282,899 | -6.15% | $216,900 | $205,238 | -5.37% |
| Dec | $291,799 | | | $210,000 | | |
Condos and Townhomes
| Month | Average 06 | Average 07 | Change | Median 06 | Median 07 | Change |
| | | | | | | |
| Jan | $253,632 | $224,970 | -11.30% | $173,000 | $178,000 | 2.90% |
| Feb | $246,102 | $224,281 | -8.90% | $167,275 | $156,900 | -6.20% |
| Mar | $250,851 | $253,029 | 0.90% | $204,613 | $169,900 | -17.00% |
| Apr | $239,540 | $222,034 | -7.30% | $193,093 | $175,000 | -9.40% |
| May | $243,927 | $226,365 | -7.20% | $192,600 | $169,750 | -11.90% |
| June | $238,437 | $281,486 | 18.05% | $181,900 | $211,840 | 16.46% |
| July | $216,871 | $258,615 | 19.25% | $183,310 | $188,750 | 2.97% |
| Aug | $228,221 | $233,410 | 2.27% | $181,100 | $181,774 | 0.37% |
| Sep | $238,503 | $354,789 | 48.76% | $190,488 | $219,000 | 14.97% |
| Oct | $237,610 | $329,832 | 38.81% | $183,171 | $218,810 | 19.46% |
| Nov | $208,051 | $248,250 | 19.32% | $165,000 | $183,000 | 10.91% |
| Dec | $230,212 | | | $152,500 | | |
12 Month comparisons
| Single Family Homes | | | | |
| | | | |
| Date | Sales | Avg Sale | Median | DOM |
| | | | |
| 12 months 12/1/2005-11/30/2006 | 12,262 | $315,364 | $213,947 | 66 |
| 12 months 12/1/2006-11/30/2007 | 9,764 | $315,606 | $216,585 | 91 |
| Change | -20.37% | unch | 1.23% | 37.88% |
| | | | |
| Condos and Townhomes | | | | |
| | | | |
| Date | Sales | Avg Sale | Median | DOM |
| | | | |
| 12 months 12/1/2005-11/30/2006 | 4,002 | $236,164 | $183,326 | 64 |
| 12 months 12/1/2006-11/30/2007 | 2,758 | $253,379 | $180,000 | 106 |
| Change | -31.08% | 7.29% | -1.81% | 65.63% |
On a humorous note, I suppose I could save some time writing anything and suggest you go through the archives to the Charleston South Carolina real estate market report for any of the past 6 months because the trends remain firmly entrenched but I'll save you the time from doing that and comment here.
Once again, I'll reiterate the second set of charts regarding average and median pricing from a single month from one year to the next seem to be less helpful. To illustrate, single family home prices have been much lower for several months than the previous year and condo and townhome prices have been much higher. The consensus for the Charleston real estate market is that market conditions for single family homes are much better than for condos and townhomes. I'll post these statistics one more time at the end of the year for continuity purposes only.
The most meaningful numbers for you to focus on is the 12 month comparisons where you can clearly see that sales for single family homes are down over 20% annually yet prices remain very stable, in fact average sales prices are unchanged on a statistical basis year over year. While condo and townhome sales are down even more sharply, surprisingly, the prices are higher on an average basis and down slightly on a median basis.
It has been said that as bad as 2007 has been for the housing market, it is still one of the 5 best years for real estate sales. I don't buy that. Population growth should account for some growth in unit sales and many potential home buyers from Gen Y born between 1977 and 1994 are reaching the age to enter the housing market. On the other hand, I don't necessarily agree with all the doom and gloom in the media or on the housing bubble blogs predicting nothing short of the end of the world. It's a tough real estate market in many parts of the country but the Charleston area has held up exceptionally well due to very strong job growth and population gains.
I believe we will see more of the same for most of 2008 as the mortgage mess gets straightened out and inventory stabilizes. The key number is inventory and it will be interesting to see if there is a big increase after the first of the year (inventory always declines in December with sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays). I don't see a turnaround for price appreciation until 2009 but I don't forecast any significant decline either. There will continue to be excellent opportunities to buy below market from motivated sellers and excess inventory from builders.