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Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

As usual, I'll post the statistics for the month of June on Charleston South Carolina real estate activity and comment afterward. One thing that stands out is that both average and median prices were substantially higher this past month with no change in the trend for lower unit sales and higher inventory. Hmmm?

Unit Sales and Inventory

Single Family Homes

MonthSales 06Sales 07ChangeInv (mo) 06Inv (mo) 07Change
       
Jan783702-10.34%3719 (4.75)5719 (8.14)53.78%
Feb858770-10.26%4023 (4.69)5861 (7.61)45.69%
Mar1177994-15.55%4330 (3.68)6087 (6.12)40.58%
Apr964771-20.02%4692 (4.87)6329 (8.21)34.89%
May1189786-33.89%4900 (4.12)6711 (8.54)36.96%
June1322879-33.51%5235 (3.96)6932 (7.89)32.42%
July1024  5618 (5.49)  
Aug1041  5849 (5.62)  
Sep1101  5963 (5.42)  
Oct834  6075 (7.28)  
Nov889  5999 (6.75)  
Dec862  5755 (6.68)  
 

Condos and Townhomes

MonthSales 06Sales 07ChangeInv (mo) 06Inv (mo) 07Change
       
Jan331155-53.17%1189 (3.60)2403 (15.50)102.10%
Feb276163-40.94%1665 (6.03)2521 (15.47)51.41%
Mar374239-36.10%1763 (4.71)2618 (10.95)48.50%
Apr434235-45.85%1730 (3.99)2740 (11.66)58.38%
May405243-40.00%1971 (4.87)2805 (11.54)42.31%
June329219-33.43%2096 (6.37)2793 (12.75)33.26%
July345  2289 (6.63)  
Aug312  2318 (7.43)  
Sep284  2419 (8.52)  
Oct268  2624 (9.79)  
Nov207  2579 (12.4)  
Dec244  2467 (10.1)  
 

The "Current Inventory" (inv) column reflects the number of active listings on the market on the 16th day of each Month. The "Months of Inventory" (mo) column is equal to the "Current Inventory" divided by the "Monthly Sales". This reflects how many months it would take to sell out of inventory at the current month’s rate of sale.

Average and Median Prices

Single Family Homes

MonthAverage 06Average 07ChangeMedian 06Median 07Change
       
Jan$338,307$329,364-2.60%$206,531$221,4507.20%
Feb$290,867$290,621unch$208,965$218,2694.50%
Mar$319,579$310,000-3.00%$210,551$219,9164.40%
Apr$319,989$324,4651.40%$215,000$229,0006.50%
May$343,653$350,2831.90%$216,728$229,2505.70%
June$306,038$357,55016.83%$213,116$225,0005.58%
July$325,242  $226,580  
Aug$319,838  $221,937  
Sep$286,945  $200,935  
Oct$332,620  $215,000  
Nov$301,428  $216,900  
Dec$291,799  $210,000  

Condos and Townhomes

MonthAverage 06Average 07ChangeMedian 06Median 07Change
       
Jan$253,632$224,970-11.30%$173,000$178,0002.90%
Feb$246,102$224,281-8.90%$167,275$156,900-6.20%
Mar$250,851$253,0290.90%$204,613$169,900-17.00%
Apr$239,540$222,034-7.30%$193,093$175,000-9.40%
May$243,927$226,365-7.20%$192,600$169,750-11.90%
June$238,437$281,48618.05%$181,900$211,84016.46%
July$216,871  $183,310  
Aug$228,221  $181,100  
Sep$238,503  $190,488  
Oct$237,610  $183,171  
Nov$208,051  $165,000  
Dec$230,212  $152,500  
 

12 month comparisons 

Single Family Homes
DateSalesAvg SaleMedianDOM
12 months 7/1/2005-6/30/200613,010$314,670 $210,000 58
12 months 7/1/2006-6/30/200710,808$317,281 $218,650 81
Change-16.93%0.83%4.12%39.66%
Condos and Townhomes
DateSalesAvg SaleMedianDOM
12 months 7/1/2005-6/30/20064,192$239,527 $176,203 60
12 months 7/1/2006-6/30/20072,985$231,709 $177,000 88
Change-28.79%-3.26%0.46%46.67%
 

When I noticed the large price increases in June 2007 for both single family homes and condos/townhomes, it seemed a longer time frame would be needed to more accurately show the pricing trends because at first glance, the Charleston South Carolina real estate market is defying gravity. If unit sales are down and inventory is up, how can prices still be going up and especially, the large price increases shown this past month? I believe you'll agree with me that the chart just above showing a comparison of the past 12 months with the previous 12 months provides a better picture of what is happening to real estate prices in the Charleston area.

As you can clearly see, while unit sales have declined substantially and inventory has increased significantly in both single family homes and condos/townhomes, prices have been much more stable on both an average and median basis. It remains firmly a buyer's market as there is a lot of inventory to choose from and buyers are taking their time. Sellers, especially builders, are very "motivated" to sell and are making deals when they have interest. I have been on both sides of the transaction recently and my sellers complained they didn't get enough when selling while the buyers have been able to wrangle lower prices and concessions.

Published Thursday, July 05, 2007 2:38 PM by Howard Arnoff

Comments

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

2222 CLAYMILL LN

MOUNT PLEASANT, SC

Anything new on this flipper?

How about that area in general...? Any sales in the last 3 months?

Tuesday, July 10, 2007 8:16 PM by js

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

JS, I'll get back to you on Rivertowne a little later today but did you see the finale on the flop in White Gables yet?

http://www.charlestononlinehomes.com/blogs/howard_arnoff/archive/2007/06/20/flop-a-charleston-south-carolina-real-estate-story-of-flipping-for-fun-and-profit-or-was-it-a-loss.aspx

Wednesday, July 11, 2007 12:08 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

OK JS, thanks for stopping back. I had a couple of things to take care of once I got back to the office but I just took a look at the MLS and found the property is still active at $689,900, a price reduction of $10,000 since being listed about 2 months ago.

Of course, even if it would sell for 689 and if I was representing the buyer, we wouldn't offer that much, the seller will likely not make money.

As to Rivertowne, 57 homes are active at 600k and above.

Sales in the last 3 months and 10 days:

April:   5

May:     3

June:    4

July:    2 (through 10 days)

I hope that helps.

What are your thoughts on how prices in Charleston have been holding up despite the slowing sales and growing inventory?  

Wednesday, July 11, 2007 1:18 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

I think that the data being shown by the industry associations (realators, lenders, banks) doesn't yet show the true nature of today's market. I keep seeing houses going for 10-15% less than the original ask prices.

I would be worried of buying today for fear of trying to catch a falling knife...seems like the market will conitinue to be soft for the foreseeable future (I think 3-5 years).

Monday, July 16, 2007 11:28 AM by JS

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

JS, as always you are entitled to your opinion but how about providing some documentation regarding your statement "keep seeing houses going for 10-15% less". Is this in the Charleston South Carolina real estate market or is it elsewhere in the country because I'm not seeing what you are talking about in the Charleston area?

As to the data provided, while it isn't perfect, I doubt there is a conspiracy to distort the numbers by realtors, lenders, banks. There are errors and duplications in the data from time to time and you just have to live with a slightly imperfect world. It's kind of like when the government issues statistics and then corrects them in the following report, as an example, there are 3 revisions to the quarterly GDP.

But take a look at the average price for single family homes for the past 12 months. That are over 13,000 sales and prices have held up at basically even so a few little errors wouldn't change that statistic very much. Perhaps instead of a 0.83% increase, there might be a 0.42% decrease in the average selling price.

Overall, 12 months without prices falling says a lot about the strength of the Charleston real estate market despite all the bad news to the contrary.

As to catching a falling knife, while I don't think the market will turn around today with prices rising quickly starting tomorrow, I seriously don't believe that we will have a soft market for the next 3-5 years in the Charleston area.

On the other hand, I don't pay very much attention to the failed economists hired by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) including the Laughable Lereah and his new replacement, whatever his name. Remember, all real estate is local and some markets are better than others.

By the way, I was thinking of a blog topic based on an email that I received the other day, "should I buy in a down market?", While you may not agreee with me, I'm sure you'll enjoy reading it, look for it in the next few days.

Monday, July 16, 2007 12:52 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

I look forward to your new blog topic.

I really feel like the nationwide data (given by real estate based associations) is totally bogus or at best a way behind/lagging indicator.

One local clear cut example was of a house in Rivertowne that was originally listed at $759K. Several times the price was reduced (most recently to $699k). well, the house just sold at $670k and what price reduction figure will be used in the data? I guarentee the latest ask price of 699. So on paper it looks like a 4% drop but the truth is that is more like 11-12%...A huge discrepancy.

Another issue i have with the data is that alot of times when there is a price reduction in the ask price the house is "reset" in the MLS to layman real estate people (maybe not to all) as a new listed house. The time frames for houses on the market data are totally skewed imho.

Just a couple of examples why I don't "trust" the data reported on house sales. There really are alot of ways to skew it in any direction. I rely on watching individual homes and get a consensus...cuz these numbers are highly questionable.

Strength in the local market is a good sign yet the fundamentals (rents/mort payment ratios) still say otherwise...a key lesson in econ 101 is the lesson of reversion to the mean.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007 12:38 AM by js

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

JS, you must be hanging out at those housing bust websites again - "nationwide data ... totally bogus"? Please.

As to the drop from 759 to to 699, how do you know the property was well priced from the start. Many sellers believe the value of their property is much higher than reality. Just ask my wife what our house if worth :)

Oftentimes a seller requires the listing agent to start the listing high. Many agents will agree to do so for a short period before bringing it in line with the market.

The data I'm providing is based on the price paid for 13,000 homes sold in the past year and you are providing 1 house as an example. Which do you really think is more accurate?

As to not trusting the data regarding days on market, you should have reason for concern. I recently wrote about that exact subject in "Relist, refresh, deceive".

Tuesday, July 17, 2007 9:44 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

I think you missed my point. I was refering to the way the data would be presented in that example. I am sure the data would not reflect the initial ask price but the last ask price.

Which totally skews the way price decreases across the country are being reported.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007 12:06 PM by js

# re: Charleston South Carolina market report, June 2007

JS, you are correct that sales price to list price reflects the last and most recent list price before a contract.

But it doesn't matter. Why?

The only thing that matters regarding price is what is paid, not the original basis on which the offer was made unless you think you are getting a "good deal" by buying an overpriced 759 for a "bargain" 670 by beating up the seller.

Once again, many sellers have inflated opinions of the value of their property. If they convince a real estate agent to list it at an unrealistic price, what does it matter if the price is ultimately reduced later.

Bottom line, price paid is the only important data point.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007 12:21 PM by Howard Arnoff
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