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Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

What are people thinking when they purchase a house and 45 days later with no indicated improvements put it on the market for sale for 7.7% more than they paid? Is this another flip ready to flop in the Charleston South Carolina real estate market or are some people really that smart and are going to make lots of money with no risk.

Sorry, not a chance. Sad

Here is the story, I look through the "hot list" provided by the Charleston MLS just about every day and all MLS activity is available. New listings, price changes, under contract, sold, withdrawn and expired are there for all the real estate agents to see what is happening on the market. I'm reviewing the new listings and what do I see but an address I showed to several buyers recently come up as a new listing. I thought it was under contract but it might have fallen through and of course some agents "freshen" up their listings by withdrawing them and then putting them out as new listings thinking that no one will notice the house has been on the market for the last year.

Surprise  Surprise, we know.

Sadly, it is the public that might not and if you don't hire a buyer's agent to represent you, don't expect to know either. The listing agent can honestly tell you that the house came on the market just a week ago and not bother to tell you that the house has sat unsold for however long. Although it isn't the case here, I just put that in as a reminder to those who think they can have all the real estate information they need in order to make a good decision and save money by doing it themselves that they really should be represented and the cost is much less than they think.

In this case, one of two things happened. Either the buyers moved in and got their mortgage statement and said, "what, we can't afford this place, we've got to sell before the bank takes it back" or they bought it at what they considered a "steal" and turned around and put the house back on the market and tacked on $50,000 for their trouble for taking title.

Let's assume it's number 2 and they are trying to flip this house because I've seen it tried too often to think otherwise. Now, let's examine the risk / reward of such an effort.

It doesn't have a chance. What's that old saying, "slim and none and slim left town." This is it.

It is a beautiful house in a beautiful neighborhood, Rivertowne Country Club in Mount Pleasant, 2800 square feet, 4 bedroom, master down, gourmet kitchen, endless views of the marsh. I showed the house to several potential buyers. If it wasn't a nice home, I would never have shown it a second time.

homes for sale in rivertowne country club, mount pleasant south carolina 

The only negative that my buyers found with the home when they viewed it was that it was missing one extra room on the main floor that could be used as a home office. As it happens, I met the original owner and he asked my feedback and when I told him, he said that was why they were selling and building around the corner, they also discovered they needed an extra room and an additional 400 square feet.

OK, it was originally listed at $689,000, reduced a little bit considering the current Charleston real estate market but it did go under contract and it closed at $650,000. Not bad. It sold, other homes around Charleston are sitting with cobwebs growing around the for sale signs.

And now it is on the market for $699,900. Buy me. Let's analyze the risk reward.

Assuming a full price sale and that the sellers are paying what 60 Minutes called a sacrosanct commission of 6%, the net to the seller is $658,000. Maybe the listing agent is taking a little less, after all, he/she was the buying agent only 45 days ago but they are offering 3% to the new selling agent. Call it 5.5% and the net to the seller is $661,500.

Did 60 Minutes pay any attention to how real estate commissions are not sacrosanct at 6% after all, that the commission is negotiable and a smart real estate agent will offer a savings to a distressed or repeat client?

No, that wouldn't have made a good story for CBS or 60 Minutes, it was much easier to bash all Realtors as overpriced and side with Redfin who only tells the story they want to tell and the consumer wants to hear.

OK, that's old news so let's get back to our flop. Unless the buyer falls in love with this house and offers full price and doesn't try to negotiate a slightly better price, it realistically will not sell at $699,900. Current statistics for the Charleston South Carolina real estate market have homes selling for approximately 4% below list price. So let's take 4% off, the agreed upon price is now $672,000, less 5.5% commission is $635,000 and another $2500 in seller closing costs takes it to $632,500.

Of course, that is only valid if there is a contract NOW. The seller has carrying costs on the house, after all, the mortgage, insurance and taxes have to be paid for every month the house is in their possession. Even with the craziest loan on the planet, they have to pay at least $3000 per month so let's round down to $630,000.

Didn't I say that they paid $650,000 just 45 days ago? I thought so, and therefore, this deal is DOA. You have to feel sorry for anyone who put themselves in this predicament and I certainly don't mean to poke fun at anyone facing a financial hardship. I always try to write with a sense of humor to make it interesting for my readers and it is not my intent to make fun of anyone.

 

Let's wrap this up with an update on flip/flop, part 3, or I guess this makes it part 4 and the finale will be part 5. The flip / flop house in my neighborhood finally went under contract after 5 months on the market. List price was eventually reduced from $329,900 to $309,900. The price paid back in November was $295,000. At $309,900, there isn't much margin with 5 months of carrying costs, real estate commission and closing costs to be considered. Was it even a full price offer? I doubt it but I'll keep you updated.

The same reminder as before, if you want to flip for a profit, not break even or lose money, you can. But please understand, you have to buy low and add value to sell high. Taking possession and title does not increase the value of the house because just because you need it to.

Published Friday, May 18, 2007 6:57 PM by Howard Arnoff

Comments

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Hello,

We just got a new site through http://www.real-estate-designers.com do you recommend print media or internet pay-per-click advertising for our new real estate website? Please advise. Thank you.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007 4:16 PM by Melissa Evans

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Since 80% of all home searching is done via the internet, I would recommend a pay per click strategy vs print. It takes time and content for good search engine placement, don't expect quick results for organic search and don't believe some of the outrageous promises being peddled by some SEO firms. Good luck and thanks for stopping by.

Thursday, May 24, 2007 9:45 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Another huge problem for that seller is that the whole neighborhood has a for sale sign. I am not exagerating...every house in the POINTE is up for sale. I see some huge downward pressure on prices there with that amount of inventory. Brand new homes are sprouting up all over the place and two brand new ones are right across the street for the same price and much nicer upgrades for a similar price.

I see $550k for this unfortunate seller...?

Monday, June 04, 2007 10:38 PM by js

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

JS, thanks for stopping by. You are right, preowned homes are competing with builders who are offering more upgrades accompanied by large incentives. However, there is no way anyone could buy this home for 550k, no matter how motivated or desperate this unfortunate seller gets. An offer like that would get one of 2 responses, a full price counter or right into the shredder. Realistic offers below list using comps and the listing history are the way to buy smart in today's market.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007 4:54 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

I tend to disagree with using comps from 12-10 months ago. This is a waaaaaaaaaay different market and the inventory continues to climb with no end in sight...these spec builders were permitting and building at the peak and I think they are going come ever so close to losing their shirts. Inventory High + no Buyers = Plunging Prices. At some point one of these sellers is going to panic and either drastically reduce or look at a short sale.

Just my 2 cents. Btw, I love the area of pointe and am considering purchasing there but am in NO rush. I see a potential blood bath there in the next 6-24 months. Look at what is going in the new area of Planters Pointe. A firesale will be going on there in the next 2-3 months for sure....inventory inventory inventory....where are the buyers? sitting on the sidelines like me.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007 11:19 AM by js

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

JS, I wouldn't use comps from 10 or 12 months ago as suggested, I wouldn't even use comps from 6 months ago. In an active area, sales in the past 3 months would be a better indication of today's value.

It is highly unlikely there will be a bloodbath or firesale or any other kind of panic going on, yes, inventory is high, but if you look at the Charleston real estate market statistics, prices for single family homes are flat to slightly up on average, a little more up on a median basis.

I don't know why prices haven't fallen, the law of supply and demand says they should and they likely will but not anywhere near where you are suggesting. Condos and townhomes are in a much more difficult position and prices have fallen more substantially on both an average and median basis.

Take a look at the statistics in my Charleston market report. I don't manipulate the statistics in any way and comment on them as they are, raw numbers, unvarnished truth.

JS, I don't blame you for staying on the sidelines at this time but don't expect a meltdown.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007 1:19 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

There is a rumor going around about a spec builder that has stopped work on Worthington Drive in Planters Pointe. Word is he has millions into permitting and construction but no buyers for his homes. Which btw, are not high quality craftmenship, other than the elevators.

This is the first domino for the that area...Its a great area but I think people miscalculated on the speculation of unsustainable home prices. It will be interesting to watch.

Your thoughts are that their will be no meltdown? Where are the buyers going to come from?

I see an easy retracement of 25%-20% in home prices in the area. I agree with you on your three month comp thesis but check the comps in that area for that timeframe. There are none!!

Tuesday, June 05, 2007 1:29 PM by js

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

JS, there appear to be 6 unsold homes by the same builder on Worthington. Builders miscalculate and go bankrupt. Then they start a new company and build again. They may or may not be good builders and they may or may not be good business people.

Mount Pleasant gets a lot of buyers from the Northeast. Since the real estate market slowed, sellers have had trouble selling their homes in the Northeast as elsewhere in the country and that has reduced the number of available buyers for medium high to high end Mount Pleasant homes.

Don't forget that good local job growth, better weather than the cold and snow of the Northeast and Midwest, second homes and retirement are several of the very positive trends working in favor of Charleston's real estate market. This is not Detroit or other declining cities (and their suburbs) where there is an exodus by the population to other areas. The South, including Charleston is the beneficiary of this migration.

As to there being no buyers, in 5 months this year, 4000 homes have sold and while that is down 20% from the same period last year, it still is 4000 more buyers than none. That number of sales would have been considered very strong except as compared to the past several years when new records for sales were set every year.

As to comps, if you can't comp "Worthington", you can certainly find comparables from elsewhere in the North Mount Pleasant area to arrive at a reasonable $ per square foot to base an offer.

At least we agree on the 3 month time frame :) and once again, thanks for stopping by and making your point. Stop back again.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007 2:15 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

For the Rivertowne area, is a $185 a sq ft. comp reasonable for the last 3 months?

Alot of these homes are listed for more around $200 PER.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007 11:37 AM by js

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

To start, you have to see the house and evaluate the quality of finishes and appointments and put a valuation on them.

Then the lot has to be factored in, the price of land is a significant portion of the home so does the house sit on an interior lot with no view or have nicer pond, golf, marsh, etc. views.

Automated valuations are ok as a starting point but you have to look inside the numbers to determine the value. I'm sorry there is no easy answer, $ per square foot is only a starting point when framing an offer.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007 1:19 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Lets take the following home for example:

http://www.charlestonvirtualhomes.com/2633844/mls.htm

According to my data that lot cost $130,000.00.

I assume that the builder probably has around 450k into the construction. Maybe a little less, maybe a little more...

All said about 580k. They have it listed at 699k and started around 739. Do think there is another 50-60 in reductions here? This is just one example of the area in general. There are several other homes in this neighborhood in the same boat. I imagine the co-op builder/broker's are getting somewhat worried here. Not panic (Yet).

Wednesday, June 06, 2007 4:09 PM by HOMEFINDER

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

There are quite a few homes very similar in design and price to this property in Rivertowne and The Pointe, I don't think that an offer of 50k less at this point would be accepted but you never know.

There are other factors in the offer that would enter into the seller's thinking such as quality of financing or better yet, cash; quick closing, recent traffic to view the property, etc.

At 650k, it would be a very nice purchase if you liked the home for yourself, not to flip it because after all, that was the original point of this post. The house is only worth what a ready, willing and able buyer offers for it.

Thursday, June 07, 2007 5:13 AM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Just an FYI, your example house in your post just came down to $689,000.

Not sure if that is going to entice anyone either...they are going to have to get ever closer to the magic $650,000 number.

Thursday, June 07, 2007 10:19 AM by JS

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

Thanks JS, maybe they are watching this blog and it likely is the first of several reductions before it eventually sells. It sold for 650,000 on March 30 and that was fair value. It didn't magically go up in value to 699 or now 689 because they took possession. Whether someone else thinks enough of the house to offer anything more is sadly irrelevant, they cannot make any money on this deal. Their odds, slim and none, and slim left town.

Thursday, June 07, 2007 12:36 PM by Howard Arnoff

# re: Are they still flipping or flopping in Charleston South Carolina real estate?

JS, you said, "They have it listed at 699k and started around 739. Do think there is another 50-60 in reductions here?"

Well, this house went under contract on June 8 while listed at 699k, we won't know the final price until closing but I don't think it will be as low as you suggest.

Monday, June 11, 2007 8:20 AM by Howard Arnoff

# Flop, a Charleston South Carolina real estate story of flipping for fun and profit or was it a loss?

Many of you will remember the story, a tale of flipping real estate that likely will result in a flop.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007 3:07 PM by Charleston Real Estate Blog

# Pricing to sell your home in today's Charleston South Carolina real estate market

What are some sellers thinking? There are flippers who are flopping and sellers who still don't understand

Tuesday, August 14, 2007 2:16 PM by Charleston Real Estate Blog
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