A tale of 2 headlines
In the past several days, housing statistics were released for both existing homes and new construction. Take a look at the contrasting headlines from the media (in this case, CNN Money) and the National Association of Realtors for existing home sales:
Home sales plunged in '06
December National Association of Realtors report shows biggest drop in full-year sales in 17 years, but prices show sign of bottoming out. Please read the entire story. 2006 Is Third-Highest Sales Year on Record
Existing-home sales eased but prices stabilized as inventories tightened in December, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Nevertheless, 2006 marked the third highest sales year on record. NAR began tracking home sales in 1968. Please read the entire story.
Bad news, good news, same news, different perspectives.
I can't help but be amused at the interpretation of some of these statistics. The media seemingly loves bad news so the focus is on the more alarming numbers. Biggest drop in 17 years is a headline, 3rd busiest year ever, small print but it was the headline for The National Association of Realtors. Please ignore comments by David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR, his recent forecasts have clearly not been accurate. Pace in December even slower than that, off just a fraction from November (in Charleston, sales actually increased 17.4% from the November pace but having said that, November was as dismal a month as I've ever seen). Inventory dropped from November but inventory always drops between Thanksgiving and Xmas as sellers don't want to be inconvenienced during the holidays and realtors recommend re-listing after January 1 to get a fresh MLS number.
sales 11/05 1405 11/06 907 -35.4% inventory 11/05 5015 11/06 8484 +69.2%
sales 12/05 1573 12/06 1065 - 32.3% inventory 12/05 5167 12/06 8250 +59.7%
+ 17.4% Dec / Nov - 2.76% Dec / Nov
Above are the statistics for the Charleston real estate market for just the past 2 months and as you can clearly see, December improved over November but the ever present inventory overhang will continue to make 2007 a challenging year. While I haven't broke out condo sales and inventory in the past, beginning with the monthly statistics in January 2007 I'll be providing those figures separately so the Charleston real estate market trends in single family and condos will be more clear.